Journal of Arid Meteorology ›› 2023, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 897-909.DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2023)-06-0897

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Drought and disaster variation characteristics in Guizhou based on Meteorological Drought Composite Index

  

  1. Guizhou Climate Center, Guiyang 550002, China
  • Received:2023-06-02 Revised:2023-11-26 Online:2023-12-31 Published:2024-01-03

基于MCI干旱综合指数的贵州省干旱时空分布及灾情变化特征

  

  1. 贵州省气候中心,贵州 贵阳 550002
  • 通讯作者: 龙俐(1979—),女,高级工程师,主要从事气候监测、风险评估研究。E-mail: x77043272@qq.com。
  • 作者简介:许丹(1969—),女,高级工程师,主要从事气候监测、气候变化研究。E-mail: xudan69@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41965010)及贵州省科技支撑计划项目(黔科合支撑[2021]508)

Abstract:

Based on the daily meteorological drought composite index (MCI) of 83 national meteorological stations in Guizhou from January 1981 to March 2023 and historical drought disaster data, this paper firstly analyzes the applicability of MCI in Guizhou from the aspects of drought process evolution characteristics, unreasonable jumping numbers, and correlation with drought disaster situations, and further reveals the spatial-temporal distribution and change rule of drought and the impact of ENSO events on drought in Guizhou. The results show that the MCI has good applicability in Guizhou. The northwest, northern and southern of Guizhou are drought-prone areas, and the annual drought days are more than 40 days, while in the southeast, southwest and central areas drought days are relatively few. There is a heavy spring drought in the west and a heavy summer drought in the east of Guizhou. From 1981 to 2022, the average annual drought days and drought intensity in Guizhou showed an overall increasing trend, with a significant increase in the western region and a decreasing trend in the eastern region. The drought intensity in autumn and winter showed an increasing trend and in autumn the trend was most obvious, while in spring and summer it showed a weakening trend. From 1981 to 2022, Guizhou Province experienced a total of 3 extremely strong regional drought processes, 9 strong regional drought processes, 17 stronger regional drought processes, and 27 general regional drought processes. The duration, average intensity, average affected area and comprehensive intensity index of regional drought processes all fluctuated greatly, and showing a weak increasing trend. The evolution pattern of drought affected area and drought intensity in Guizhou and its nine regions from 1981 to 2022 is basically consistent, and the overall trend showed a stage change of high-low-high-low.There is a high possibility of excessive summer precipitation in Guizhou in El Ni ño decaying years, while there is a high possibility of insufficient summer precipitation in Guizhou in La Ni ña decaying years.

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摘要:

基于贵州省 83 个国家级气象站 1981 年 1 月至 2023 年 3 月逐日气象干旱综合指数(Meteorological Drought Composite Index,MCI)及历史干旱灾情资料,从干旱过程演变特征、不合理跃变次数以及干旱日数与干旱灾情的相关性等方面,分析MCI在贵州省的适用性,揭示贵州省干旱时空分布及变化规律,并分析ENSO(El Niño-Southern Oscillation)事件对贵州省干旱的影响。结果表明:MCI在贵州省有较好的适用性。贵州西北部、北部及南部等地是干旱多发区,年干旱日数在40 d以上,东南部、西南部及中部一带干旱日数相对较少;西部春旱重、东部夏旱重。1981—2022年,贵州省平均年干旱日数和干旱强度总体呈增加趋势,其中西部增加趋势明显,东部呈减少趋势;秋季和冬季干旱强度呈增加趋势且秋季最明显,春季和夏季则呈减弱趋势。1981—2022年贵州省共发生 3次特强、9次强、17次较强区域性干旱过程,一般区域性干旱过程 27次,区域性干旱过程的持续天数、平均强度、平均影响面积以及综合强度指数均存在较大波动,总体呈弱增加趋势。贵州省及其 9个市(州)1981—2022年农作物因旱受灾面积与干旱强度演变规律基本一致,总体呈高、低、高、低的阶段性变化。El Niño衰减年夏季贵州省降水偏多的可能性大,而La Niña衰减年夏季降水偏少的可能性大。

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